Who lifts the trophy?
Probabilities from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the full tournament, powered by an international Elo built on 150 years of results.
★ Match of the round · Quarter-finalsThu · 19:00
FRA
France
64%
France to win
model confidence
MAR
Morocco
2.0-0.9expected goals56%over 2.5 goals2-0most likely score69% FRAto advance
Knockout matches - full predictions
19:00MonARGArgentinaEGYEgyptRound of 16ARG 89% to advance3-0
192%X6%22%
19:00MonPORPortugalESPSpainRound of 16ESP 68% to advance0-1
117%X21%261%
19:00MonSUISwitzerlandCOLColombiaRound of 16COL 60% to advance1-1
125%X24%250%
19:00MonUSAUnited StatesBELBelgiumRound of 16BEL 59% to advance1-1
127%X25%249%
Probability of winning the title
1FRAFrance25.9%
2ARGArgentina23.1%
3ESPSpain17.4%
4BRABrazil6.7%
5ENGEngland6.5%
6MARMorocco5.3%
7COLColombia4.4%
8PORPortugal2.8%
9MEXMexico2.3%
10SUISwitzerland1.8%
11BELBelgium1.8%
12NORNorway1.4%
AI-generated predictions for informational and educational purposes. Not betting advice.